Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2–0 Bačka 1901

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FT

2 – 0

Bačka 1901

11/1/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova50%

×Draw24%

Bačka 190126%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo Stara PazovaExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.15

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.69

Bačka 1901

1.15

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 27 away

1.38

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.38

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.04

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw

74%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Bačka 1901

76%

Draw or Bačka 1901

50%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

27%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

82%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

50%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

24%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

68%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

32%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

66%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

50%

level

24%

Bačka 1901 scores more

26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff