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Bačka 1901 vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
2 – 1
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
5/15/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 34Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190150%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.70
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.14

Bačka 1901 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.03

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
74%
Bačka 1901 or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
50%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
27%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
82%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
51%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
68%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
32%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
66%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
50%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
26%

Bačka 1901 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bačka 1901 2–1 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Bačka 1901 beat Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.