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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
2 – 1
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
3/9/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin46%
×Draw26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.44
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.06

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 36% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
72%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Jedinstvo Kruševac
74%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
54%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
22%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
76%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
42%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
18%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
65%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
29%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
62%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
46%
level
26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
28%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 2–1 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Jedinstvo Kruševac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.