Jedinstvo Kruševac 1–0 Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Kruševac

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jedinstvo Paraćin

8/19/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac53%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Paraćin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo KruševacExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Paraćin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.14

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.83

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.14

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 61% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 92 away

2.05

creates per match

1.04

1.23

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac

2.05

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.04

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.23

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw

76%

Jedinstvo Kruševac or Jedinstvo Paraćin

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin

47%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+

30%

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals

84%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals

54%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals

28%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

68%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

32%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)

69%

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more

53%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

24%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff