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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Hajduk Veljko — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
0 – 0
Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
9/25/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin60%
×Draw22%
Hajduk Veljko17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.87
Hajduk Veljko
0.89

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 110% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Hajduk Veljko
0.60

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Hajduk Veljko
2.07

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Hajduk Veljko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
83%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Hajduk Veljko
78%
Draw or Hajduk Veljko
40%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
35%
Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
85%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
56%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
29%
Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
59%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
22%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
78%
Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
60%
level
22%
Hajduk Veljko scores more
17%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 0–0 Hajduk Veljko

Jedinstvo Paraćin and Hajduk Veljko drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.