Hajduk Veljko 1–0 Jedinstvo Paraćin: Result & Stats

Hajduk Veljko

FT

1 – 0

Jedinstvo Paraćin

4/17/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko43%

×Draw27%

Jedinstvo Paraćin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk VeljkoExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Paraćin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Hajduk Veljko

1.38

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.13

Hajduk Veljko creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 92 away

1.14

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko

1.14

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.04

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko

1.21

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw

69%

Hajduk Veljko or Jedinstvo Paraćin

73%

Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin

57%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+

20%

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals

75%

Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals

40%

Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals

16%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

68%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

31%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)

58%

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more

43%

level

27%

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

31%

Hajduk Veljko at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff