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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
11/6/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin60%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Vranje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.77
Dinamo Vranje
0.80

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 121% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
83%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Dinamo Vranje
77%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
40%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
53%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
26%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
55%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
78%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
60%
level
23%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
17%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 1–0 Dinamo Vranje

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Dinamo Vranje 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.