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Dinamo Vranje vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
CANC
15:00
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
5/21/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 28Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje50%
×Draw23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.81
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.27

Dinamo Vranje creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 92 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
2.00
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
73%
Dinamo Vranje or Jedinstvo Paraćin
77%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
28%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
27%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
72%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
36%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
65%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
50%
level
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
27%

Dinamo Vranje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Vranje face Jedinstvo Paraćin (Srpska Liga - East)

Srpska Liga - East returns with Dinamo Vranje hosting Jedinstvo Paraćin. Match starts May 21, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Vranje host Jedinstvo Paraćin at Stadion YUMCO.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.