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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
0 – 2
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
10/31/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin56%
×Draw22%
Car Konstantin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
2.01
Car Konstantin
1.18

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 70% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
78%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Car Konstantin
78%
Draw or Car Konstantin
44%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
33%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
87%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
59%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
32%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
69%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
33%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
72%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.01

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
56%
level
22%
Car Konstantin scores more
22%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 0–2 Car Konstantin

Car Konstantin beat Jedinstvo Paraćin 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.