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Car Konstantin vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
10/9/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Car Konstantin45%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Paraćin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.64
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.32

Car Konstantin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 92 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
69%
Car Konstantin or Jedinstvo Paraćin
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
55%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
81%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
49%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
73%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
38%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
59%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
45%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
31%

Car Konstantin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Car Konstantin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.