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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Jagodina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jagodina
Jagodina
9/14/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac45%
×Draw23%
Jagodina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.72
Jagodina
1.41

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 83 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Jagodina
1.59

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Jagodina
1.39

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Jagodina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Jagodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
68%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Jagodina
77%
Draw or Jagodina
55%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
24%
Jagodina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
82%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
51%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
25%
Jagodina 1+ goals
76%
Jagodina 2+ goals
41%
Jagodina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
59%
Jagodina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Jagodina away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Jagodina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.72

Jagodina attack 1.59 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
45%
level
23%
Jagodina scores more
32%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Kruševac 0–0 Jagodina

Jedinstvo Kruševac and Jagodina drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.