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Jagodina vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
4/4/2026Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jagodina53%
×Draw26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.52
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.86

Jagodina creates 77% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
79%
Jagodina or Jedinstvo Kruševac
74%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
47%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
27%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
78%
Jagodina 2+ goals
45%
Jagodina 3+ goals
20%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
21%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
71%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jagodina scores more
53%
level
26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
21%

Jagodina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 0–1 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Jagodina 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 4, 2026.