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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs FK Trayal — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
0 – 3
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
5/25/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 29Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac30%
×Draw25%
FK Trayal45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.24
FK Trayal
1.56

FK Trayal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
FK Trayal
1.90

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
FK Trayal
0.43

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
55%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or FK Trayal
75%
Draw or FK Trayal
70%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
13%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
71%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
35%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
13%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
79%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
46%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
40%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + FK Trayal defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

FK Trayal attack 1.90 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
30%
level
25%
FK Trayal scores more
45%

FK Trayal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Kruševac vs FK Trayal

FK Trayal beat Jedinstvo Kruševac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.