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FK Trayal vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal63%
×Draw22%
Jedinstvo Kruševac14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
1.79
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.70

FK Trayal creates 156% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
2.38
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

FK Trayal
0.45
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
86%
FK Trayal or Jedinstvo Kruševac
78%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
37%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
37%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
83%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
53%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
50%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
16%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
82%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Trayal scores more
63%
level
22%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
14%

FK Trayal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Trayal vs Jedinstvo Kruševac

FK Trayal beat Jedinstvo Kruševac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.