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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
8/12/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać48%
×Draw25%
Vis Kosova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.61
Vis Kosova
1.13

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 61 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.52
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.05
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
73%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Vis Kosova
75%
Draw or Vis Kosova
52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
25%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
80%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
48%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
22%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
68%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
31%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
64%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
48%
level
25%
Vis Kosova scores more
27%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Bihać vs Vis Kosova

Jedinstvo Bihać and Vis Kosova drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Borićima in Bihać.