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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Čelik
Čelik
10/4/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać44%
×Draw27%
Čelik29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.38
Čelik
1.08

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 42 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.51
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.03
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
71%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Čelik
73%
Draw or Čelik
56%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
21%
Čelik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
75%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
40%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
16%
Čelik 1+ goals
66%
Čelik 2+ goals
29%
Čelik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
60%
Čelik (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 97 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.51 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Čelik attack 1.14 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
44%
level
27%
Čelik scores more
29%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Jedinstvo
Čelik
N. Žerić
Manager: N. Žerić
N. Hukić
Manager: N. Hukić

1st League - FBiH: Jedinstvo Bihać 0–0 Čelik

Jedinstvo Bihać and Čelik drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Borićima in Bihać.