Čelik 5–0 Jedinstvo Bihać: Result & Stats

Čelik

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jedinstvo Bihać

D. Sijamija 82', 77'

A. Masic 64'

A. Masetic 45'

M. Popovic 2'

4/25/2026

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik68%

×Draw20%

Jedinstvo Bihać11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Bihać

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.66

Čelik

1.98

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.66

Čelik creates 200% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 97 away

2.00

creates per match

0.69

0.62

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Čelik

2.00

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.69

allows per match

Čelik

0.62

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

89%

Čelik or Jedinstvo Bihać

80%

Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać

32%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

43%

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

86%

Čelik 2+ goals

59%

Čelik 3+ goals

31%

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

48%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

14%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

86%

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.95 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Čelik scores more

68%

level

20%

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

11%

Čelik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

45'

64'

77'

82'

Čelik

Jedinstvo

Manager: N. Hukić

Manager: N. Žerić