Jeddah Club 1–1 Al Jeel: Result & Stats

Jeddah Club

FT

1 – 1

Al Jeel

8/7/2020

Division 1 · Round 29King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Jeddah Club37%

×Draw29%

Al Jeel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeddah ClubExpected goals in this matchAl Jeel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Jeddah Club

1.15

Al Jeel

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 59 away

1.05

creates per match

0.95

1.23

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Jeddah Club

1.05

Al Jeel

0.95

allows per match

Jeddah Club

1.23

Al Jeel

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Al Jeel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al Jeel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw

66%

Jeddah Club or Al Jeel

71%

Draw or Al Jeel

63%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

15%

Al Jeel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

68%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

32%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

11%

Al Jeel 1+ goals

66%

Al Jeel 2+ goals

30%

Al Jeel 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

52%

Al Jeel (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al Jeel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al Jeel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Jeel attack 0.95 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeddah Club scores more

37%

level

29%

Al Jeel scores more

34%

Jeddah Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff