Al Jeel 2–1 Jeddah Club: Result & Stats

Al Jeel

FT

2 – 1

Jeddah Club

3/3/2021

Division 1 · Round 24Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Jeel34%

×Draw27%

Jeddah Club39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al JeelExpected goals in this matchJeddah Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Al Jeel

1.19

Jeddah Club

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 127 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

1.42

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Al Jeel

1.00

Jeddah Club

1.19

allows per match

Al Jeel

1.42

Jeddah Club

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jeel+0.00on par

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jeel ↓

Jeddah Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Jeel or draw

61%

Al Jeel or Jeddah Club

73%

Draw or Jeddah Club

66%

Winning margin

Al Jeel wins by 2+

14%

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Jeel 1+ goals

70%

Al Jeel 2+ goals

33%

Al Jeel 3+ goals

12%

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

73%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

37%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Jeel (draw refunded)

46%

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jeel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 60 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jeel attack 1.00 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al Jeel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Jeel scores more

34%

level

27%

Jeddah Club scores more

39%

Jeddah Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff