Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jeddah Club vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
5/7/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 31Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jeddah Club31%
×Draw27%
Al-Faisaly FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeddah Club
1.11
Al-Faisaly FC
1.35

Al-Faisaly FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 68 away

creates per match

Jeddah Club
1.05
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Jeddah Club
1.23
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw
58%
Jeddah Club or Al-Faisaly FC
73%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
69%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+
12%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals
67%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
30%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
10%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
74%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
39%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jeddah Club scores more
31%
level
27%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
42%

Al-Faisaly FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeddah Club vs Al-Faisaly FC

Jeddah Club beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 in Division 1 on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.