Jeddah Club 0–1 Al-Ansar: Result & Stats

Jeddah Club

FT

0 – 1

Al-Ansar

9/5/2018

Division 1 · Round 2Al Ansar Club Stadium (Medina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jeddah Club46%

×Draw26%

Al-Ansar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeddah ClubExpected goals in this matchAl-Ansar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Jeddah Club

1.48

Al-Ansar

1.09

Jeddah Club creates 36% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 22 away

1.05

creates per match

0.95

1.23

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Jeddah Club

1.05

Al-Ansar

0.95

allows per match

Jeddah Club

1.23

Al-Ansar

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Al-Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al-Ansar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw

72%

Jeddah Club or Al-Ansar

74%

Draw or Al-Ansar

54%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

23%

Al-Ansar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

77%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

43%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

19%

Al-Ansar 1+ goals

66%

Al-Ansar 2+ goals

30%

Al-Ansar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Ansar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al-Ansar away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al-Ansar defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Ansar attack 0.95 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jeddah Club scores more

46%

level

26%

Al-Ansar scores more

28%

Jeddah Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff