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Al-Ansar vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018

Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
FT
3 – 0
Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
9/11/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Al Ansar Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al-Ansar35%
×Draw29%
Jeddah Club37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ansar
1.11
Jeddah Club
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 127 away

creates per match

Al-Ansar
0.86
Jeddah Club
1.19

allows per match

Al-Ansar
1.10
Jeddah Club
1.37

finishing

Al-Ansar+0.00on par
Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ansar ↓

Jeddah Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Ansar or draw
63%
Al-Ansar or Jeddah Club
71%
Draw or Jeddah Club
65%

Winning margin

Al-Ansar wins by 2+
14%
Jeddah Club wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Ansar 1+ goals
67%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
30%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
10%
Jeddah Club 1+ goals
68%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
32%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
49%
Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ansar at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ansar attack 0.86 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al-Ansar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Ansar scores more
35%
level
29%
Jeddah Club scores more
37%

Jeddah Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ansar vs Jeddah Club

Al-Ansar beat Jeddah Club 3-0 in Division 1 on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Al Ansar Club Stadium in Medina.