Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jayxun vs FarDu — Pro League A 2026

Jayxun
Jayxun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FarDu
FarDu
A. Kutibaev 77' (pen)
I. Abelfazov 10'
6/16/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jayxun41%
×Draw26%
FarDu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jayxun
1.41
FarDu
1.22

Jayxun creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jayxun
1.06
FarDu
0.88

allows per match

Jayxun
1.56
FarDu
1.75

finishing

Jayxun+0.00on par
FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jayxun ↓

FarDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jayxun or draw
67%
Jayxun or FarDu
74%
Draw or FarDu
59%

Winning margin

Jayxun wins by 2+
20%
FarDu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jayxun 1+ goals
76%
Jayxun 2+ goals
41%
Jayxun 3+ goals
17%
FarDu 1+ goals
70%
FarDu 2+ goals
34%
FarDu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jayxun (draw refunded)
56%
FarDu (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jayxun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jayxun attack 1.06 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

FarDu attack 0.88 + Jayxun defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jayxun scores more
41%
level
26%
FarDu scores more
33%

Jayxun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jayxun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
I. Abelfazov
77'
A. KutibaevPenalty
Jayxun
FarDu
A. Nurbaev
Manager: A. Nurbaev
S. Lebedev
Manager: S. Lebedev

Match Recap: Jayxun vs FarDu

Jayxun and FarDu drew 1-1 in Pro League A on June 16, 2025.

Goals: I. Abelfazov (10'), A. Kutibaev (77' pen).