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FarDu vs Jayxun — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jayxun
Jayxun
Unknown 90', 90', 51', 7'
4/12/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FarDu66%
×Draw19%
Jayxun14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
2.17
Jayxun
0.90

FarDu creates 141% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Jayxun
0.64

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Jayxun
2.71

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Jayxun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Jayxun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
86%
FarDu or Jayxun
81%
Draw or Jayxun
34%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
42%
Jayxun wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
89%
FarDu 2+ goals
64%
FarDu 3+ goals
36%
Jayxun 1+ goals
59%
Jayxun 2+ goals
23%
Jayxun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
82%
Jayxun (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Jayxun away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Jayxun defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jayxun attack 0.64 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FarDu scores more
66%
level
19%
Jayxun scores more
14%

FarDu at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
51'
90'
90'
FarDu
Jayxun
S. Lebedev
Manager: S. Lebedev
A. Nurbaev
Manager: A. Nurbaev

FarDu 4 – 0 Jayxun

FarDu beat Jayxun 4-0 in Pro League A on April 12, 2026.

Goals: ? (7', 51', 90', 90').