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Javor vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
11/1/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 14Stadion Kraj Moravice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Javor43%
×Draw27%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.39
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.12

Javor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 145 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.97

allows per match

Javor
1.27
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.53

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Javor or draw
70%
Javor or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
73%
Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
57%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
20%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
75%
Javor 2+ goals
40%
Javor 3+ goals
16%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
67%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
31%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
59%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Javor scores more
43%
level
27%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
30%

Javor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Javor 1–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Javor and FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV drew 1-1 in Super Liga on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Moravice in Ivanjica.