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Jastrzębie vs Hutnik Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
7/19/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jastrzębie43%
×Draw26%
Hutnik Kraków30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.43
Hutnik Kraków
1.15

Jastrzębie creates 24% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 102 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Hutnik Kraków
1.04

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Hutnik Kraków
1.67

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
70%
Jastrzębie or Hutnik Kraków
74%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
57%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
21%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
76%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
42%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
17%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
68%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
32%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
59%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
43%
level
26%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
30%

Jastrzębie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Jastrzębie 5–0 Hutnik Kraków

Jastrzębie beat Hutnik Kraków 5-0 in II Liga - East on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.