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Hutnik Kraków vs Jastrzębie — II Liga - East 2019

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
11/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Hutnik Kraków47%
×Draw25%
Jastrzębie28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.58
Jastrzębie
1.15

Hutnik Kraków creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 63 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
Jastrzębie
0.98

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
Jastrzębie
1.62

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
72%
Hutnik Kraków or Jastrzębie
75%
Draw or Jastrzębie
53%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
24%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
79%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
47%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
21%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
68%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
32%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
63%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
47%
level
25%
Jastrzębie scores more
28%

Hutnik Kraków at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Hutnik Kraków 1–0 Jastrzębie

Hutnik Kraków beat Jastrzębie 1-0 in II Liga - East on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy in Kraków.