Jastrzębie 0–3 Goczałkowice Zdrój: Result & Stats

Jastrzębie

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Goczałkowice Zdrój

M. Przewoznik 79'

R. Flasz 63'

J. Borek 58'

2/4/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jastrzębie26%

×Draw21%

Goczałkowice Zdrój52%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.05

Jastrzębie

1.40

Goczałkowice Zdrój

2.05

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

2.80

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.00

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.30

allows per match

Jastrzębie

2.80

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

48%

Jastrzębie or Goczałkowice Zdrój

79%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

74%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

11%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

75%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

41%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

17%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

87%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

61%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.00 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.30 + Jastrzębie defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

26%

level

21%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

52%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

58'

J. Borek

63'

R. Flasz

79'

M. Przewoznik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff