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Jastrzębie vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
K. Mucha 90+2'
P. Kucharczyk 13'
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jastrzębie33%
×Draw23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.50
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.75

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.17
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.18

allows per match

Jastrzębie
2.33
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.82

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
56%
Jastrzębie or Goczałkowice Zdrój
77%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
67%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
16%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
78%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
44%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
19%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
83%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
52%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
43%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.17 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.18 + Jastrzębie defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
33%
level
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
44%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Kucharczyk
90+2'
K. Mucha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jastrzębie vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Jastrzębie beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: P. Kucharczyk (13'), K. Mucha (90+2').