Jastrzębie 3–1 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Jastrzębie

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

5/19/2023

II Liga - East · Round 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jastrzębie38%

×Draw26%

Garbarnia Kraków35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Jastrzębie

1.33

Garbarnia Kraków

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 68 away

1.19

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.19

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Jastrzębie

1.25

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

65%

Jastrzębie or Garbarnia Kraków

74%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

62%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

17%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

74%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

38%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

15%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

72%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

36%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

52%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

38%

level

26%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

35%

Jastrzębie at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff