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Garbarnia Kraków vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
4/7/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 27Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków27%
×Draw28%
Jastrzębie45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.93
Jastrzębie
1.29

Jastrzębie creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Jastrzębie
0.99

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Jastrzębie
1.40

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
55%
Garbarnia Kraków or Jastrzębie
72%
Draw or Jastrzębie
73%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
61%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
7%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
72%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
37%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
37%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Jastrzębie attack 0.99 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
27%
level
28%
Jastrzębie scores more
45%

Jastrzębie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Garbarnia Kraków 0–1 Jastrzębie

Jastrzębie beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej (Kraków).