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Jastrzębie vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
4/24/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 30Stadion Miejski (Jastrzębie Zdrój)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jastrzębie39%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.48
Bytovia Bytów
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.40
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
63%
Jastrzębie or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
61%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
18%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
77%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
43%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
19%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
76%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
42%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
51%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
39%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
37%

Jastrzębie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jastrzębie vs Bytovia Bytów

Jastrzębie beat Bytovia Bytów 4-0 in I Liga on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Jastrzębie Zdrój).