Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bytovia Bytów vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2018

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
10/6/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 13Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów41%
×Draw28%
Jastrzębie31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.29
Jastrzębie
1.08

Bytovia Bytów creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Jastrzębie
0.99

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Jastrzębie
1.40

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
69%
Bytovia Bytów or Jastrzębie
72%
Draw or Jastrzębie
59%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
19%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
37%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
66%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
29%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
57%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jastrzębie attack 0.99 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
41%
level
28%
Jastrzębie scores more
31%

Bytovia Bytów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs Jastrzębie

Jastrzębie beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in I Liga on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Bytów).