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Jas Qyran vs Astana II — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Astana II
Astana II
10/3/20231. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran68%
×Draw17%
Astana II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
2.66
Astana II
1.17

Jas Qyran creates 127% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Astana II
1.04

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Astana II
2.96

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Astana II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Astana II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
85%
Jas Qyran or Astana II
83%
Draw or Astana II
32%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
47%
Astana II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
93%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
74%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
49%
Astana II 1+ goals
69%
Astana II 2+ goals
33%
Astana II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
82%
Astana II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Astana II away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Astana II defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.66

Astana II attack 1.04 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
68%
level
17%
Astana II scores more
15%

Jas Qyran at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Jas Qyran 1–3 Astana II

Astana II beat Jas Qyran 3-1 in 1. Division on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.