Astana II 1–3 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats

Astana II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Jas Qyran

B. Mustafin 45+1'

N. Agzambayev 82'

A. Seitov 67'

S. Kabirov 56'

6/22/2023

1. Division · Round 12Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Astana II51%

×Draw21%

Jas Qyran28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astana IIExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.59

Astana II

2.17

Jas Qyran

1.59

Astana II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

1.91

creates per match

1.21

1.98

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Astana II

1.91

Jas Qyran

1.21

allows per match

Astana II

1.98

Jas Qyran

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astana II+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astana II ↓

Jas Qyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Astana II or draw

72%

Astana II or Jas Qyran

79%

Draw or Jas Qyran

49%

Winning margin

Astana II wins by 2+

30%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Astana II 1+ goals

89%

Astana II 2+ goals

64%

Astana II 3+ goals

36%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

80%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

47%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Astana II (draw refunded)

64%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astana II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astana II attack 1.91 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Astana II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Astana II scores more

51%

level

21%

Jas Qyran scores more

28%

Astana II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Astana II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

B. Mustafin

56'

S. Kabirov

67'

A. Seitov

82'

N. Agzambayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff