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Jas Qyran vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
8 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Arys
Arys
A. Aydarbekuly 90+3'
S. Kabirov 68'
N. Agzambayev 62', 61', 11'
A. Seitov 58', 4'
M. Sabdirov 54'
S. Maksimkhan 7'
5/25/20231. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran61%
×Draw19%
Arys20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
2.35
Arys
1.29

Jas Qyran creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Arys
2.35

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
80%
Jas Qyran or Arys
81%
Draw or Arys
39%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
39%
Arys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
90%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
68%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
41%
Arys 1+ goals
72%
Arys 2+ goals
37%
Arys 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
75%
Arys (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.35

Arys attack 1.30 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
61%
level
19%
Arys scores more
20%

Jas Qyran at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Seitov
7'
S. Maksimkhan
11'
N. Agzambayev
54'
M. Sabdirov
58'
A. Seitov
61'
N. Agzambayev
62'
N. Agzambayev
68'
S. Kabirov
90+3'
A. Aydarbekuly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs Arys

Jas Qyran beat Arys 8-1 in 1. Division on May 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Seitov (4', 58'), S. Maksimkhan (7'), N. Agzambayev (11', 61', 62'), M. Sabdirov (54'), S. Kabirov (68'), A. Aydarbekuly (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.