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Arys vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
N. Dosanov 83'
N. Agzambayev 55'
9/14/20231. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Arys44%
×Draw23%
Jas Qyran34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
1.82
Jas Qyran
1.57

Arys creates 16% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arys
1.21
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Arys
1.93
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Arys or draw
66%
Arys or Jas Qyran
77%
Draw or Jas Qyran
56%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
24%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
84%
Arys 2+ goals
54%
Arys 3+ goals
27%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
79%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
46%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
57%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.21 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Arys defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arys scores more
44%
level
23%
Jas Qyran scores more
34%

Arys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
N. Agzambayev
83'
N. Dosanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arys vs Jas Qyran

Arys and Jas Qyran drew 1-1 in 1. Division on September 14, 2023.

Goals: N. Agzambayev (55'), N. Dosanov (83').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Arys.