Jas Qyran 5–1 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

Jas Qyran

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

S. Kabirov 70'

M. Sabdirov 60', 56'

K. Ilyasov 47'

A. Starodubov 28'

Z. Babanazarov 69'

8/31/2023

1. Division · Round 22Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran57%

×Draw21%

Akademiya Ontustik22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jas QyranExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.27

Jas Qyran

2.15

Akademiya Ontustik

1.27

Jas Qyran creates 69% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

2.36

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Jas Qyran

2.36

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

Jas Qyran

1.29

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw

78%

Jas Qyran or Akademiya Ontustik

79%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

43%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

35%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

88%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

63%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

36%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

72%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

36%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

72%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.15

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jas Qyran scores more

57%

level

21%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

22%

Jas Qyran at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Starodubov

47'

K. Ilyasov

56'

M. Sabdirov

60'

M. Sabdirov

69'

Z. Babanazarov

70'

S. Kabirov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff