Akademiya Ontustik 5–4 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats

Akademiya Ontustik

FT

5 – 4

HT: 4 – 3

Jas Qyran

K. Askar 49'

B. Daniyarov 36'

R. Serikkul 34'

Z. Babanazarov 20'

K. Narkulov 15'

A. Zhaisanbek 90+3'

Z. Mukhametkhanov 38'

A. Seitov 26'

D. Alimzhan 8'

5/19/2023

1. Division · Round 8Stadion Namys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik50%

×Draw21%

Jas Qyran29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya OntustikExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.56

Akademiya Ontustik

2.08

Jas Qyran

1.56

Akademiya Ontustik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

1.73

creates per match

1.21

1.91

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.73

Jas Qyran

1.21

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.91

Jas Qyran

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Jas Qyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw

71%

Akademiya Ontustik or Jas Qyran

79%

Draw or Jas Qyran

50%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

29%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

87%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

61%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

34%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

79%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

46%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

63%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

50%

level

21%

Jas Qyran scores more

29%

Akademiya Ontustik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Alimzhan

15'

K. Narkulov

20'

Z. Babanazarov

26'

A. Seitov

34'

R. Serikkul

36'

B. Daniyarov

38'

Z. Mukhametkhanov

49'

K. Askar

90+3'

A. Zhaisanbek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff