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Jaraíz vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jaraíz
Jaraíz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Diocesano
Diocesano
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jaraíz48%
×Draw25%
Diocesano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraíz
1.63
Diocesano
1.17

Jaraíz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 93 away

creates per match

Jaraíz
1.87
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Jaraíz
0.92
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw
73%
Jaraíz or Diocesano
75%
Draw or Diocesano
52%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+
25%
Diocesano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals
80%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
48%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
22%
Diocesano 1+ goals
69%
Diocesano 2+ goals
33%
Diocesano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)
64%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jaraíz scores more
48%
level
25%
Diocesano scores more
27%

Jaraíz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraíz vs Diocesano

Jaraíz beat Diocesano 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera in Jaraíz de la Vera.