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Diocesano vs Jaraíz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Diocesano
Diocesano
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Jaraíz
Jaraíz
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Diocesano46%
×Draw25%
Jaraíz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diocesano
1.61
Jaraíz
1.25

Diocesano creates 29% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

creates per match

Diocesano
1.71
Jaraíz
1.40

allows per match

Diocesano
1.11
Jaraíz
1.52

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par
Jaraíz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Jaraíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw
70%
Diocesano or Jaraíz
75%
Draw or Jaraíz
54%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+
23%
Jaraíz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals
80%
Diocesano 2+ goals
48%
Diocesano 3+ goals
22%
Jaraíz 1+ goals
71%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
36%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)
61%
Jaraíz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Jaraíz away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Jaraíz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jaraíz attack 1.40 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Diocesano scores more
46%
level
25%
Jaraíz scores more
30%

Diocesano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Diocesano 2–3 Jaraíz

Jaraíz beat Diocesano 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado in Cáceres.