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Jaraíz vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jaraíz
Jaraíz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jaraíz63%
×Draw21%
Atlético Pueblonuevo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraíz
1.99
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.89

Jaraíz creates 124% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jaraíz
1.87
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Jaraíz
0.92
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw
84%
Jaraíz or Atlético Pueblonuevo
79%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
37%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+
38%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals
86%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
59%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
32%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.99

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jaraíz scores more
63%
level
21%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
16%

Jaraíz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Jaraíz 2–1 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Jaraíz beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera in Jaraíz de la Vera.