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Atlético Pueblonuevo vs Jaraíz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jaraíz
Jaraíz
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo41%
×Draw26%
Jaraíz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.41
Jaraíz
1.25

Atlético Pueblonuevo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 52 away

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.30
Jaraíz
1.40

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.11
Jaraíz
1.52

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par
Jaraíz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

Jaraíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw
67%
Atlético Pueblonuevo or Jaraíz
74%
Draw or Jaraíz
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
19%
Jaraíz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
17%
Jaraíz 1+ goals
71%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
36%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
55%
Jaraíz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Jaraíz away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + Jaraíz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jaraíz attack 1.40 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
41%
level
26%
Jaraíz scores more
33%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pueblonuevo vs Jaraíz

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Jaraíz 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Amaya in Pueblonuevo del Guadiana.