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Jarabacoa vs Delfines Del Este — Liga Mayor 2020

Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Delfines Del Este
Delfines Del Este
J. D. Correa Jinete 90+3'
M. Kelvin 73'
5/10/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 5Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jarabacoa34%
×Draw27%
Delfines Del Este39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarabacoa
1.19
Delfines Del Este
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

creates per match

Jarabacoa
1.20
Delfines Del Este
1.03

allows per match

Jarabacoa
1.53
Delfines Del Este
1.19

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par
Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

Delfines Del Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw
61%
Jarabacoa or Delfines Del Este
73%
Draw or Delfines Del Este
66%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+
14%
Delfines Del Este wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals
70%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
33%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
12%
Delfines Del Este 1+ goals
72%
Delfines Del Este 2+ goals
37%
Delfines Del Este 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
47%
Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Delfines Del Este away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Delfines Del Este attack 1.03 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jarabacoa scores more
34%
level
27%
Delfines Del Este scores more
39%

Delfines Del Este at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Delfines Del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
M. Kelvin
90+3'
J. D. Correa Jinete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Jarabacoa 2–0 Delfines Del Este

Jarabacoa beat Delfines Del Este 2-0 in Liga Mayor on May 10, 2023.

Goals: M. Kelvin (73'), J. D. Correa Jinete (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Junior Mejía in Jarabacoa.