Delfines Del Este 2–0 Jarabacoa: Result & Stats

Delfines Del Este

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jarabacoa

R. De Los Santos Fernandez 29'

E. Dorlus 26'

11/1/2025

Liga Mayor · Round 21Estadio Parque del Este

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Delfines Del Este40%

×Draw26%

Jarabacoa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfines Del EsteExpected goals in this matchJarabacoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.28

Delfines Del Este

1.42

Jarabacoa

1.28

Delfines Del Este creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

1.37

creates per match

0.90

1.67

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Delfines Del Este

1.37

Jarabacoa

0.90

allows per match

Delfines Del Este

1.67

Jarabacoa

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Jarabacoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfines Del Este ↓

Jarabacoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Delfines Del Este or draw

66%

Delfines Del Este or Jarabacoa

74%

Draw or Jarabacoa

60%

Winning margin

Delfines Del Este wins by 2+

19%

Jarabacoa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Delfines Del Este 1+ goals

76%

Delfines Del Este 2+ goals

41%

Delfines Del Este 3+ goals

17%

Jarabacoa 1+ goals

72%

Jarabacoa 2+ goals

37%

Jarabacoa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)

54%

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfines Del Este at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 60 matches

Jarabacoa away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfines Del Este attack 1.37 + Jarabacoa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jarabacoa attack 0.90 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Delfines Del Este scores more

40%

level

26%

Jarabacoa scores more

34%

Delfines Del Este at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Delfines Del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

E. Dorlus

29'

R. De Los Santos Fernandez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff