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Jaraaf vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
5/4/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Municipal de Yoff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jaraaf45%
×Draw32%
Jamono Fatick23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
1.08
Jamono Fatick
0.68

Jaraaf creates 59% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
77%
Jaraaf or Jamono Fatick
68%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
55%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
18%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
66%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
29%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
10%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
49%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
15%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
66%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jaraaf scores more
45%
level
32%
Jamono Fatick scores more
23%

Jaraaf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraaf vs Jamono Fatick

Jaraaf and Jamono Fatick drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yoff in Dakar.