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Jamono Fatick vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
12/26/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Massène Sène

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jamono Fatick29%
×Draw33%
Jaraaf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamono Fatick
0.80
Jaraaf
0.95

Jaraaf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 89 away

creates per match

Jamono Fatick
0.93
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Jamono Fatick
0.96
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Jamono Fatick+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamono Fatick ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jamono Fatick or draw
63%
Jamono Fatick or Jaraaf
67%
Draw or Jaraaf
71%

Winning margin

Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
9%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
55%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
19%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
5%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
61%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
25%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
44%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamono Fatick at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamono Fatick attack 0.93 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Jamono Fatick defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jamono Fatick scores more
29%
level
33%
Jaraaf scores more
37%

Jaraaf at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Jamono Fatick 0–2 Jaraaf

Jaraaf beat Jamono Fatick 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Massène Sène in Fatick.