JäPS 5–1 KPV-j: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

JäPS

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

KPV-j

H. Kuosa 86', 61' (pen)

J. Tapani 68'

C. Chantzopoulos 45' (OG)

G. Zolameso 8'

J. Liukkonen 5'

10/1/2023

Ykkönen · Relegation Round - 4Järvenpää Monitoimihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JäPS46%

×Draw24%

KPV-j30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPSExpected goals in this matchKPV-j

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.30

JäPS

1.68

KPV-j

1.30

JäPS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.44

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

JäPS

1.48

KPV-j

1.17

allows per match

JäPS

1.44

KPV-j

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par

KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

KPV-j →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

JäPS or draw

70%

JäPS or KPV-j

76%

Draw or KPV-j

54%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+

24%

KPV-j wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals

81%

JäPS 2+ goals

50%

JäPS 3+ goals

24%

KPV-j 1+ goals

73%

KPV-j 2+ goals

37%

KPV-j 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)

61%

KPV-j (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

KPV-j away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.48 + KPV-j defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

KPV-j attack 1.17 + JäPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

JäPS scores more

46%

level

24%

KPV-j scores more

30%

JäPS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

8'

12'

16'

45'

C. ChantzopoulosOwn goal

55'

E. Tamminen← T. Karkulowski

58'

G. Zolameso

61'

J. Paananen← J. Ihalainen

61'

H. KuosaPenalty

63'

64'

68'

71'

72'

72'

72'

J. Holopainen← H. Toivonen

75'

S. Uusitalo

83'

V. Gomes

85'

R. Heidari

85'

S. Uusitalo← S. Uusitalo

86'

H. Kuosa

JäPS

KPV-j

33

Lazarev

21

🥅

Chantzopo

2

▼

Ihalainen

4

▼

15

23

6

9

⚽

Liukkonen

14

Kauppila

29

▼

Wegye

17

Gomes

1

Laiho

16

▼

Autio

28

⚽

Zolameso

4

Ramström

77

▼

Karkulows

14

⚽

Tapani

6

▼

Jama

19

⚽2

Kuosa

23

▼

Köse

11

Banza

25

▼

Toivonen

Manager: J. Ahola

55'▲E. Tamminen←▼T. Karkulowski

64'▲R. Heidari←▼O. Jama

72'▲T. Arminen←▼R. Autio

72'▲P. Mokuma←▼B. Köse

72'▲J. Holopainen←▼H. Toivonen

JäPS substitutes

20Tamminen8Heidari5Arminen10Mokuma21Holopainen3Meriläinen30Källman

Manager: A. Sipilä

61'▲J. Paananen←▼J. Ihalainen

71'▲K. Curinga←▼W. Wegye

85'▲S. Uusitalo←▼S. Uusitalo

KPV-j substitutes

11Paananen12Curinga24Uusitalo1Seppä20Ring

JäPS 5 – 1 KPV-j

JäPS beat KPV-j 5-1 in Ykkönen on October 1, 2023.

Goals: J. Liukkonen (5'), G. Zolameso (8'), C. Chantzopoulos (45' o.g.), H. Kuosa (61' pen, 86'), J. Tapani (68').

The match was played at Järvenpää Monitoimihalli in Järvenpää.

JäPS vs KPV-j — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

JäPS 5 – 1 KPV-j