JäPS 0–3 KPV-j: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

JäPS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

KPV-j

J. Liukkonen 89' (pen)

N. Kujasalo 59', 12'

7/22/2023

Ykkönen · Round 16Järvenpään keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JäPS46%

×Draw24%

KPV-j30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPSExpected goals in this matchKPV-j

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.30

JäPS

1.68

KPV-j

1.30

JäPS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.44

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

JäPS

1.48

KPV-j

1.17

allows per match

JäPS

1.44

KPV-j

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par

KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

KPV-j →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

JäPS or draw

70%

JäPS or KPV-j

76%

Draw or KPV-j

54%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+

24%

KPV-j wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals

81%

JäPS 2+ goals

50%

JäPS 3+ goals

24%

KPV-j 1+ goals

73%

KPV-j 2+ goals

37%

KPV-j 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)

61%

KPV-j (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

KPV-j away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.48 + KPV-j defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

KPV-j attack 1.17 + JäPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

JäPS scores more

46%

level

24%

KPV-j scores more

30%

JäPS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. Kujasalo

46'

G. Zolameso← P. Mokuma

58'

A. Ramstrom

59'

N. Kujasalo

63'

J. Holopainen← E. Tamminen

64'

R. Heidari← J. Tapani

69'

S. Sipola

76'

V. Seppa

77'

C. Sund

79'

W. Wegye← Vitor Gomes

81'

K. Curinga← N. Kujasalo

89'

J. LiukkonenPenalty

90+1'

A. Ring← V. Välipakka

JäPS

KPV-j

1

5

21

2

3

15

6

⚽2

▼

Kujasalo

18

▼

Välipakka

9

⚽

Liukkonen

11

Paananen

17

▼

30

16

4

77

14

▼

Tapani

6

Jama

19

Kuosa

10

▼

Mokuma

7

Khayat

20

▼

Tamminen

27

Mohamed

Manager: J. Ahola

46'▲G. Zolameso←▼P. Mokuma

63'▲J. Holopainen←▼E. Tamminen

64'▲R. Heidari←▼J. Tapani

JäPS substitutes

28Zolameso21Holopainen8Heidari3Meriläinen5Arminen31Schulz

Manager: A. Sipilä

79'▲W. Wegye←▼Vitor Gomes

81'▲K. Curinga←▼N. Kujasalo

90+1'▲A. Ring←▼V. Välipakka

KPV-j substitutes

29Wegye12Curinga16Ring4Uusitalo10Heiermann20Ylimäki

Ykkönen: JäPS 0–3 KPV-j

KPV-j beat JäPS 3-0 in Ykkönen on July 22, 2023.

Goals: N. Kujasalo (12', 59'), J. Liukkonen (89' pen).

The match was played at Järvenpään keskuskenttä in Järvenpää.

JäPS vs KPV-j — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: JäPS 0–3 KPV-j