JäPS II 0–3 Atlantis II: Result & Stats

JäPS II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Atlantis II

6/13/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 10Lukion tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JäPS II43%

×Draw25%

Atlantis II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPS IIExpected goals in this matchAtlantis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.24

JäPS II

1.49

Atlantis II

1.24

JäPS II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.78

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

JäPS II

1.78

Atlantis II

1.15

allows per match

JäPS II

1.33

Atlantis II

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS II+0.00on par

Atlantis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS II ↓

Atlantis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

JäPS II or draw

68%

JäPS II or Atlantis II

75%

Draw or Atlantis II

57%

Winning margin

JäPS II wins by 2+

21%

Atlantis II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

JäPS II 1+ goals

77%

JäPS II 2+ goals

44%

JäPS II 3+ goals

19%

Atlantis II 1+ goals

71%

Atlantis II 2+ goals

35%

Atlantis II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

JäPS II (draw refunded)

58%

Atlantis II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Atlantis II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS II attack 1.78 + Atlantis II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Atlantis II attack 1.15 + JäPS II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JäPS II scores more

43%

level

25%

Atlantis II scores more

32%

JäPS II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff